Police: 'We've Had a Substantial Drop in Violent Crime'

Every year officers respond to about 18,000 to 20,000 calls. Crime analyst Joanne Paul crunches the numbers and sends that data to the FBI.

"It's important for us to see overall trends, because it's not always easy to identify bigger problems when you only look at crime on a day-to-day basis," she said.

The numbers for the first nine months of the year have been released, and police say there's been a substantial decrease in violent crime when compared to the first nine months of 2009 and 2010.

The FBI classifies the following as violent, or "Part I," crimes: aggravated assault, forcible rape, murder, robbery, arson, burglary, theft and motor vehicle theft.

Violent crime during the first nine months of 2011 is down by more than 12 percent from 2010 and more than 27 percent from 2009.

"Percentage-wise, it might be misleading. The murder rate dropped by 100 percent," Paul said.  "But that's because we had one in 2009, one in 2010 and none so far this year."

And compare 14 aggravated assaults in 2009 to 12 in 2010 and seven in 2011 (See attached PDF).

Paul said looking at the overall numbers is more telling. From Jan. 1, 2011 through Sept. 30, 2011, Golden Valley police handled 363 reports of Part I crimes, compared to 415 in 2010 (January through September) and 501 in 2009 (January through September)

The most significant decreases were in burglaries and theft.

Crime 
(Jan. 1-Sept. 30)        

2010       

While some of the percentages may seem significant, Paul said the important thing is the overall trend, not any specific number.

"We could have a situation where one person is part of a string of thefts," she said. "So the number you see might not really reflect what's going on."

But the decrease in Part 1 crimes is evident, she said. "I would say it's a substantial drop in violent crime. In fact, last year (all 12 months) is the lowest we've been in a decade."

There are several possible reasons for the drop, she said. The numbers are a positive reflection of the police department, and the community should take some credit, she added.

"People here are very active in crime prevention. We have many people participating in neighborhood watch and in some of our other programs, and it makes a difference."

Of Part II crimes—ranging from curfew offenses and loitering to DWIs and traffic offenses—Paul said the only significant change was to traffic offenses and property crimes (See attached PDF).

"Traffic stops were up because we've increased enforcement. Several grants have allowed us to do that, and I think the roads are safer because of it."

As for property crimes, she said they have decreased, in part, because Golden Valley is an aging community.

"Most property crimes are committed by males in their late teens and early 20s, and as residents get older, there are just fewer people committing these crimes."

So what are some of the trends that aren't necessarily showing up in the data?  Paul said the department also pays attention to the anecdotal data, too.

"We're seeing a slight bump in identity theft and fraud against seniors," she said.

Both are increasing trends nationwide. Paul said the police department website lists ways to protect you and your loved ones. You also can drop by the police department and ask for printed literature. 

Paul also said the department will be coming out with its calendar for next year, which will include their often sold-out Masters Safety Seminar.

"Awareness and preparedness are the most powerful tools we have to keep our communities safe."